Climate Predictions
Weather watchers have been captivated by some very unusual weather activity in the Pacific that has delivered a burst of recent cyclones/typhoons, including an extremely rare Southern Hemisphere cyclone in July.“During the first week of July we had three typhoons lined up across the North Pacific and a cyclone in the south. There’s been a lot of activity that’s unusual for this time of year and climatologists are watching these developments very closely,” said Tom DiLiberto, climatologist at the Climate Prediction Center within US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Cyclone Raquel hit the Solomon Islands on 4 July bringing heavy rain, landslides and flooding, destroying 80 houses and numerous market gardens across four provinces. Almost 119,000 people have been affected according to the latest assessments. Tropical Storm Nangka also battered the North Pacific bringing heavy rain, large swells and strong wind to the Marshall Islands, ripping boats from their moorings and blowing off roofs. Typhoon Soudelor has also just ripped its way across the Northern Marianas causing widespread destruction, only to be followed by two more typhoons Atsani and Goni. There was also recently a record trio of Category 4 hurricanes hurtling across the Pacific, near the Hawaiian Islands.
Climatologists are interested in these weather systems not just because they are so unseasonal but because of what they tell us about the looming El Niño event in the Pacific where ocean temperatures are increasing. According to the World Meteorological Organisation, during August, east-central tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures have ranged between +1.3° and +2.0° Celsius above average, exceeding El Niño thresholds by around 1 degree, indicating that the current El Niño is at a very significant level.Forecasters are now almost unanimous the 2015 event will strengthen further in coming weeks but the question is by how much?
“That is most definitely the big question. We are certainly favoring that it will end up peaking as a strong El Nino event but it is difficult to say exactly how strong. Cyclones and typhoons over recent weeks have been whipping up the westerly winds along the equator and this has the potential to ‘charge’ or at least strengthen the El Nino event that is currently underway,” Tom DiLiberto said.
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